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FROM THE BASELINE

December 18, 2001

   By the Numbers

Coming off a slow night in the NBA (just one game, and a laugher at that), I thought now would be a good time to take a look at the leaders in some of the stats I present on this site from time to time.

First and foremost of the tools is my player rating system, the PER. Here's the top 15 so far this season (minimum 250 minutes):
PER	Player		PPG	RPG	APG	FG%
32.64	o'neal,shaq	26.5	11.5	3.4	56.5
32.60	bryant,kobe	25.9	5.5	5.8	49.7
32.10	duncan,tim	24.1	13.0	3.6	50.4
30.90	mcgrady,tracy	26.0	6.8	4.8	45.8
30.72	miller,andre	16.6	4.3	11.1	47.4
	
29.24	nowitzki,dirk	23.2	8.9	2.0	48.0
27.31	brandon,terrell	13.2	3.2	9.0	42.8
26.85	brand,elton	19.4	11.1	2.6	51.8
26.68	garnett,kevin	20.9	12.3	5.2	45.8
25.89	stackhouse,jer	22.2	4.6	5.8	40.5

25.68	nash,steve	18.2	3.0	7.7	49.8
25.47	francis,steve	21.0	7.8	5.8	44.2
25.11	malone,karl	24.0	8.4	3.8	47.8
24.91	vanexel,nick	24.5	3.5	7.5	41.4
24.84	payton,gary	22.1	4.6	9.1	44.2
Shaq has reclaimed the top spot from Kobe, just barely, but you can see that those two and Tim Duncan are locked in a pretty tight race for the MVP trophy right now, with the en fuego Tracy McGrady and Cleveland's Andre Miller rounding out the top five. (At least, in my mind they are. Others have, um, different opinions.)

Also notice that Karl Malone has clawed his way back into the top fifteen. I had written earlier this year about his apparent demise, and like many folks over the last two decades I'm now munching on a steady diet of crow. But the way Duncan is playing it still appears that his string of ten straight years as the top-ranked power forward in PER is done.

And finally, with Brandon, Nash, Francis, Van Exel, Payton, and 17th-ranked Stephon Marbury, I would not want to be the guy selecting point guards for the West in this year's All-Star game.

Speaking of Brandon, how is that he's got the seventh-highest PER in the league with stats that are seemingly modest? Well, here's one indicator: he's leading the league by a wide margin in pure point rating, which I introduced in my piece on assist-turnover ratio. Here's the top 10:
Pure point Rating
(min. 250 minutes)

brandon,terrell	min	13.98	
stoudamire,dam	por	12.15		
miller,andre	cle	10.39	
ward,charlie	nyk	9.73	
jackson,mark	nyk	9.39
	
johnson,avery	den	8.90	
stockton,john	uta	7.91	
williams,alvin	tor	7.74	
tinsley,jamaal	ind	7.53	
anthony,greg	chi	7.39
That Greg Anthony is at number 10 is no accident either. His PER of 16.96 has been one of the year's biggest surprises, helped by the fact that he's no longer viewing it as an indignity to shoot from inside the three-point line.

One other stat I introduced recently is points per shot attempt, which is a good way to isolate shooting ability from other stats. Here's how they rank right now:
Points Per Shot Attempt
(min. 250 minutes)

delk,tony	pho	1.343
barry,jon	det	1.337
barry,brent	sea	1.300
smith,steve	san	1.299
miller,reggie	ind	1.274

kerr,steve	por	1.268	
piatkowski,eric	lac	1.267	
porter,terry	san	1.261
atkins,chucky	det	1.261
marshall,donye	uta	1.259
Tony Delk has moved to the top of the list, which is otherwise dominated by the Barry progeny. Overall, though, it's the usual suspects making up the top ten. Of course, a listing like this wouldn't be complete without also including the league's biggest masons (drumroll please ....)
Least Points Per Shot Attempt
(min. 250 minutes)	

oakley,charles	chi	0.696
johnson,ervin	mil	0.703
griffin,eddie	hou	0.727
alexander,cour	was	0.769
lue,tyronn	was	0.778
		
blaylock,mook	gsw	0.779
abdul-wahad,ta	den	0.787		
blount,corie	phi	0.795
carter,anthony	mia	0.801	
amaechi,john	uta	0.823		
As you can tell, this list pretty much reads like a Guy Who Lost Their Job All-Star Team, and for good reason. Checking out the disparity from top to bottom, you get almost twice as many points from the average shot attempt by one of the Barry brothers than you do from one by Charles Oakley.

Finally, as always folks, I've saved the best for last. I know you guys are dying to know which guys have really, truly, stunk this season. So I'm presenting to you the 15 lowest rated players by PER this season. Two notes: First, I've lowered the threshold to 150 minutes for this list, since it's tough to be this bad and keep getting clock. Also, to help draw any conclusions that might interest you, I've conveniently put two players in bold:
PER	Player		PPG	RPG	APG	FG%
-2.58	mack,sam	3.3	1.2	0.3	28.6
-0.65	lewis,quincy	4.2	1.3	1.2	41.7
-0.20	ruffin,michael	1.3	3.9	0.4	26.9
0.85	amaechi,john	3.8	2.7	0.5	28.8
1.17	chandler,tyson	3.6	2.3	0.4	48.8

1.88	curry,eddy	3.8	2.2	0.2	40.7
1.98	rooks,sean	3.1	2.2	0.3	43.3
2.08	starks,john	5.5	1.0	1.1	36.9
2.08	bender,jonathan	3.8	1.9	0.5	34.7
2.68	collins,jarron	4.1	3.8	0.7	38.5

2.70	caffey,jason	3.6	2.2	0.5	51.4
2.76	barkley,erick	1.9	1.2	2.2	24.2
2.79	doleac,michael	7.2	6.3	0.9	40.7
2.80	anderson,nick	4.8	2.6	1.1	28.6	
2.82	long,art	4.3	4.4	0.4	51.1	
Pot Shots

You knew that if the NBA was keeping a record for "most three-point attempts in a game without a a make," that at some point Antoine Walker was destined to break it ... I never knew the Sixers name was meant to be so literal. They have exactly six guys that can play, and now that they're all healthly they're winning again. But the rest of the team is terrible, and that's what's been killing them. In addition to Michael Ruffin's name on the list above, there's Corie Blount, for example, who has a PER of 3.65 and is getting 20 minutes a night. As a result, as soon as they get another injury they're going to have problems again.

 
 
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