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The Rookies
This year's rookie class has been a bumper crop, a fact which has been magnified by the pathetic showing of last year's group. Today I'm going to take a look at how the kids in this year's draft class are faring, and make a few comparisons to last year.
First of all, just to show you difference in quality, here's a sampling of the top five rookies from last year's draft class and the top five rookies this year, based on PER (remember folks, I'm leaving out guys like Speedy Claxton, Oscar Torres and Andrei Kirilenko who weren't in this year's draft):
Top rookies (Min. 200 minutes)
2000-01 PER 2001-02 PER
Q. Richardson 17.18 B. Haywood 21.01
D. Miles 13.72 P. Gasol 17.16
E. Najera 13.30 J. Johnson 17.08
M. Peterson 12.87 J. Tinsley 15.79
M. Miller 12.28 S. Battier 15.09
The five rookies above and a sixth (San Antonio's Tony Parker, PER 13.88) are playing better than every rookie from a year ago except one. Golden State's Jason Richardson (13.40) is close as well. It is, in every way, a far better crop than a year ago.
(By the way, for those of you that noticed that last year's Rookie of the Year was only fifth in PER among rookies: Yes, they blew the vote. Quentin Richardson was demonstrably better, but Miller had a hot April and caught the voters' attention.)
It's an interesting class for more than just their play this year, however. Take a look at the top 10 picks of the first round against the last 10, and look at how they've done:
TOP 10 PER BOTTOM 10 PER
K. Brown 3.44 Z. Randolph 6.93
T. Chandler 0.85 B. Haywood 21.01
P. Gasol 17.16 J. Forte -5.64
E. Curry 2.85 J. Sasser N/A
J. Richardson 13.40 B. Armstrong -4.82
S. Battier 15.09 R. Lopez N/A
E. Griffin 7.04 G. Wallace 20.40
D. Diop N/A S. Dalembert 6.88
R. White 10.24 J. Tinsley 15.79
J. Johnson 17.08 T. Parker 13.88
Sure, some of the guys in the last ten have been disasters (Armstrong, Forte, probably Sasser given that they've hidden him on the injured list all year), as might be expected. But the other guys have all contributed except Lopez, and he has a good excuse since he's not in the country.
In fact, of the three guys mentioned most often for Rookie of the Year so far, two were the final picks of the first round - Tinsley and Parker. Haywood is finally getting some burn and has the highest PER of any rookie. Wallace has been electric when he's been able to crack the Kings' deep lineup, and Dalembert and Randolph have both made contributions off the bench for their clubs.
Compare them to the top guys. Gasol, Johnson, Battier and Richardson have all been major contributors and look like budding stars. But three of the top four picks would be playing in the NBDL right now if they hadn't been chosen so high. DeSagana Diop has yet to take the court, and Eddie Griffin and Rodney White haven't been any great shakes when they've played.
I know what you're going to say - those three guys who are struggling were taken out of high school. We should expect them to struggle. There's some truth in that, but not to the depths which this year's trio have sunk. Here's how some other high school guys did in their first NBA seasons:
ROOKIE YEAR PER
Kevin Garnett 18.74
Kobe Bryant 15.14
Tracy McGrady 18.58
Rashard Lewis -2.54
Jermaine O'Neal 13.57
Darius Miles 13.72
Al Harrington -0.99
Johnathan Bender 0.81
As you can see, Lewis was the only guy to struggle as much as Brown,Chandler and Curry have and still become a player. Harrington may also be on his way, although it's been a tough road. On the other hand Bender struggled just as much as Harrington and Lewis, and he still can't play. Moreover, all the guys who became superstars played significantly better as rookies than Brown, Chandler and Curry.
Based on the evidence, it sure seems to me that Chandler, Curry and Brown have very little chance of becoming NBA superstars, and that they'll have to make some strides just to be productive starters. I'm not saying the Bulls and Wizards should write off their investments in these guys just yet, but they certainly should be concerned with how slow the progress has been, and they need to stop kidding themselves that guys like Garnett and Kobe struggled just as much.
On the bigger picture of the draft in general, here's my take: I think what we're seeing is that the drafting of ever-younger players has evened out the draft. Because the kids' games are less developed when they enter the draft, there's more risk in projecting their future performance. And because of that, teams that draft later have a better shot at coming up with somebody who can play than they used to, while clubs in the top three aren't getting guaranteed studs anymore.
To me, that has some important implications. If a late first-round pick has more value than it used to, then we might see more late-season trades go down where a contending team gets immediate veteran help in return for a draft pick. Top-level teams will think twice before including their top pick as a throw-in in trades. And a few bright clubs out there might start trading down from the lottery for multiple picks, as the Nets did this season.
Pot Shots
Without a peep from the national press, DeShawn Stevenson has taken over Utah's starting 2-guard role. Not a bad move at all by Jerry Sloan, considering what the other losers he tried there were doing. John Starks (PER of 1.90) and Quincy Lewis (PER of negative 0.05) were pathetic, and Bryon Russell is hurt. DeShawn has played very respectably (PER 12.37), including last night's 16-point effort ...
So now the Hornets are considering Norfolk ... and St. Louis ... and New Orleans ... and Anaheim. In other words, they didn't like Louisville's offer and are inventing other candidates. And if one of them happens to hand them a sweetheart deal, so much the better. Personally, I'm rooting for the Big Easy. Can you just imagine what kind of trouble guys like Anthony Mason will get into if New Orleans gets a team?
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