February 20, 2003
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Deadline Deals So the deadline has passed, and we have one blockbuster and one other fairly important trade to discuss.
To keep you on your toes, I'll deal with these in ascending order of importance. First, the Nuggets acquired Shammond Williams and a second-round draft choice from the Celtics in return for Mark Bryant (PER 0.43) and Mark Blount (PER 9.92). The Celtics needed big men of any stripe, as evidenced by the fact that Grant Long was actually playing, and Blount is a familiar face, so the deal makes sense from that angle. Bryant is just filler and may be cut on arrival.
Williams (PER 12.55) is a far better player than either of those two when he's going good, but he's been firing up bricks all year and was relegated to the pine. But he's still better than Junior Harrington, for crying out loud, so Denver will give him a test drive before he heads off into free agency.
Moving on, the Hornets and Sonics exchanged Elden Campbell for Kenny Anderson. The Sonics are hoping Anderson (PER 16.03) will fill their point guard void, while the Sonics are hoping Campbell (PER 15.23) can take over at center. I think the odds on Campbell are a bit better, but since both players will be free agents after the season, nobody's taking a huge risk.
That takes us to our first big deal: Mike Miller going to Memphis for Drew Gooden. The complete deal was Miller, Ryan Humphrey (PER 3.12) and Sacramento's #1 pick in return for Gooden and Gordan Giricek (PER 11.24).
I think this might be the rare trade that helps both teams, although I like it better for Memphis. Miller (PER 14.17) and Gooden (14.62) are of about the same quality and age, with Orlando throwing a No. 1 to offset Gooden's slightly higher upside. It finally gives the Griz a real shooting guard (while I'm on this, somebody wrote that the trade gives Memphis a jam at the wings because they have Wes Person and Michael Dickerson. That was a joke, right?), as well as an all-Gator backcourt with Jason Williams. Meanwhile, Gooden didn't have a place to play in Memphis.
For Orlando, it's a not-so-subtle admission that Pat Garrity is killing them. (By the way, it's now time for me to mention once again that if they hadn't re-signed Garrity, they could have had Keon Clark. But I digress.) Gooden will take over Garrity's spot and move him to a reserve role, while Giricek's spot-up shooting and token defense should fit Orlando's system nicely.
I look at Memphis now with a lineup of Williams, Miller, Battier, Gasol and Wright, with Earl Watson, Person and Stro Swift coming off the bench, and they're starting to bear a scary resemblance to a real basketball team. They have no top pick this year (unless they get LeBron) and no real money to throw at free agents, so these are the guys they're going with to get to to the next level.
Incidentally, given that a) Jerry West is scouting in Europe right now, and b) he asked for that late No. 1 pick instead of a more useful player (Steven Hunter, for instance), can we infer that West has eyes for a foreign player nobody else has noticed?
For Orlando, the deal is a break-even at best unless Grant Hill comes back, in which case it becomes an obvious home run since Miller would be superfluous at that point. But what are the odds of Hill coming back?
Now, to the main event. The Bucks sent Ray Allen (PER 20.44), Kevin Ollie (PER 13.87)and Ronald Murray (PER 10.93) to the Sonics for Gary Payton (PER 21.61) and Desmond Mason (PER 14.36).
Payton is getting on in years and is a free agent after the season. The Sonics obviously felt that getting a star like Allen now was better than the risk of losing Payton uncompensated in the offseason, and guessed -- probably correctly -- that they wouldn't be a big draw for marquee free agents this summer.
On the other hand, despite Payton's age, he's still a better player than Allen, especially defensively, and Allen's had some knee problems that are a concern.
However, my big problem with Seattle's end of the deal is the undercard. I just don't get why they had to include Desmond Mason to make this deal work. Milwaukee already has a crowd at the wings, especially since Payton will likely be the starting off guard, and Mason's rookie contract was very cap-friendly. Instead, they get two point men who will hold down the fort until they can use their midlevel exception on a real lead guard this summer.
So overall, it's a white flag from the Sonics -- they're rebuilding, and unless the ping-pong balls come up "LeBron" we might be in for a couple of years of 35-47. Meanwhile, it's full speed ahead for the Sonics. Because of Payton's relationship with Karl, they're pretty sure they can re-sign him. Payton and Mason will greatly upgrade Milwaukee's sad defense, and the Glove can back up Sam Cassell at the point with Michael Redd coming in at the off guard.
Mason may start at small forward if somebody can't wake up Tim Thomas, in which case the Bucks' starting five is Cassell, Payton, Mason, Mason and Caffey/Gadzuric, with Redd, Thomas, Kukoc and the other stiff center coming off the bench. While that still doesn't rival the Big 3 in the East, I see no reason why Milwaukee can't grab No. 4 and win a round in the playoffs.
Overall, then, it's a great deal for the Bucks, who are playing for the present, and the best of a bad situation for the Sonics, who began the year with high hopes, but now look as though they won't seriously contend until at least 2005.
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